Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts

Many Derek Carr fanboys are arguing to anyone who will listen that with Derek Carr in 2024 the Saints were 'close', going 5-5 despite many injuries, yet with Spencer Rattler the Saints were hopeless, going 0-7. They make Derek Carr out to be a playoff contender going into 2025, but this ignores all the facts. The reason that Spencer Rattler went 0-7 was that Rattler faced 86% playoff teams with 28% of key offensive weapons (McCoy,Kamara,Hill,Olave,Shaheed) available. Carr was 5-5 but faced only 30% playoff teams and had 66% of the key 5 offensive weapons available. In truth, Rattler offers a much younger less costly alternative to Carr, with more upside. The Saints with Carr did not have a better record because they were 'close' they had a better record because they faced weaker opponents with a healthier offense and Carr is a QB who has consistently demonstrated his ability to go .500 by beating weak opponents while failing to beat playoff teams. That is who Derek Carr is, and why he will never be worth $40-50 million per year.

Here are some facts:

Neither Derek Carr nor Spencer Rattler beat any opponents in 2024 who made the 2024 playoffs, finished 2024 with a winning record, or finished 2024 with a winning record against other teams (excluding their games against the Saints for fair comparison). The Saints were 0-9 against such teams, which is... not close.

Spencer Rattler faced 6 such playoff/winning teams in 7 games in 2024. Derek Carr faced 3 such playoff/winning teams in 10 games in 2024. Spencer Rattler faced the much harder schedule while Carr sat out most of the toughest games and came back just in time for easier games with healthier supporting cast.

Derek Carr was 5-2 against losing teams in 2024, but did lose to both the Panthers and Falcons. This is a great skill for avoid high draft picks, but does not make the Saints close or contenders.

Spencer Rattler only faced one losing team in 2024 and happened to lose that game against the Raiders, a game in which the Saints had already been eliminated from the playoffs just a week earlier, this being their first full weak of practice after the let down of elimination, and it was a game in which Erik McCoy, Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed all did not play, essentially the perfect storm of missing weapons. Had Spencer Rattler had 7 games against losing teams he may very well have been 5-2 also.

Derek Carr was injured twice in 2023 (he never missed a full game only due to lucky timing with byes) and twice in 2024 missing 7 games. Spencer Rattler has not missed any games in 2024 or in college in 2023 or 2022. Rattler, 10 years younger, is clearly more durable than Carr.

In addition to strength of opponents, injuries of key offensive weapons and oline played a big role in Carr and Rattler's records:

Erik McCoy was available in 5 of 10 Carr games but only 2 of 7 Rattler games.

Alvin Kamara was available in all 10 of 10 Carr games, but only 4 of 7 Rattler games.

Taysom Hill was available in 7 of 10 Carr games, but only 1 of 7 Rattler games.

Chris Olave was available in 6 of 10 Carr games, but only 2 of 7 Rattler games.

Rashid Shaheed was available in 5 of 10 Carr games, but only 1 of 7 Rattler games.

All in among these key 5 offensive players, Carr played with 66% of his key supporting cast in his starts, Rattler played with 28% of his key supporting cast.

Just in case you think that this means Rattler is the one throwing 'hospital balls', Shaheed suffered a season ending injury in a Rattler game, Olave in a Carr game, Taysom Hill suffered two long term injuries both in Carr games, Kamara sat out the last 3 games of the season after a minor injury in a Rattler game, and McCoy suffered a long term injury under Carr that was aggravated later under Rattler. With Rattler facing the stronger opponents, we might have expected more injuries under Rattler, but there is no such pattern.

The reason that Carr was 5-5 and Rattler 0-7, and that Carr's stats look slightly better, was not skill. Carr faced 30% playoff teams with 66% key offensive weapons available. Rattler faced 86% playoff teams with 28% key offensive weapons available. The deck was stacked against Rattler, yet he still stayed healthy himself and showed great signs of skill and development. Witht he same weak opponents and healthier weapons, Rattler would likely have outplayed Carr for a fraction of the cost and with far more upside.

Knowing this context and these facts, the Saints should not hesitate to designate to designate Derek Carr a Post-June-1 cut, save $30 million against the 2025 cap, $33 million against the 2026 cap which they could be $100 million under with the right moves, and avoid $17 million dead cap that would hit in 2027 if Carr plays out his contract. That money could be better spent elsewhere, on players who have won playoff games in their career, are competitive against playoff teams in the regular season, are young and have upside, and would be willing to take pay cuts if they were as bad against playoff teams as Derek Carr. Spencer Rattler is about as good a QB as Derek Carr for much less cost, and the Saints need to rebuild starting with a young QB. Carr is a QB who goes .500 by with a weak schedule, isn't competitive against playoff teams, and has never won a playoff game in his 11 year NFL career. There is no precedent for a 34yo QB who never won a playoff game going on to become an playoff hero. He is not worth $40-50 million a year and never will be. He must be cut.